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Re: fatality stats



Hi Jonathan,
Please see my comments marked "GG:" below:


>Greg Girard quoted the AMA stat regarding 1/3 of all fatalities on
>motorcycles being caused by the infamous left turning cage.  Actually,
>Greg, the statistic is a little bit camoulflaged.  If you go back and
>read it ( I don't have it in front of me but IIRC...) you'll find that
>it is not 1/3 of ALL motorcycle fatalities.  First you have to dismiss
>all the alcohol related accidents (a huge amount perhaps nearly half {I
>can't remember exacty?} of all fatal accidents on motorcycles) and then
>dismiss from the balance of non alcohol related accidents all the fatals
>that did not involve another vehicle.  So the real statistic involves
>only non-alcohol-related, cage vs. motorcycle accidents.  The number is
>much smaller than "1/3 of ALL fatals".  It is still no doubt a big
>problem with the left turning cage phenomenon however, riding with the
>high beams on (especially at night while trailing) is irritating too
>whether I'm riding or driving.  Should be a law against it.  Why anyone
>would want to hinder the vision of oncoming traffic (or any motorist
>sharing the road with you) is beyond my comprehension.  I've always
>thought that the best defense to left turners is to just anticipate it
>and trust no one.

GG: I performed the same mental excercise and will join you in recognizing
there is some confusion here. I was so shocked by the numbers that I said
"boy, oh boy, they must certainly not be taking drunks into consideration."
But then it occurred to me that to remove drunks from the statistics about
the "left turn" incidents would be to imply that drunks are the only group
that do not get victimized by these things (not credible). So, in my
opinion, we must conclude that fatalities are likely be assigned more than
one causal factor (drunk and left turn for some ?). Thus, we are still left
with 36% of fatalities from left turn incidents, drunk or otherwise.

So here is an example that will work for both of us. There is a popular
Ducati shop down the street (Eastern Cycle Ducati, Beverly, Massachusetts
owned by one Steve Keegan). He has had hundreds if not thousands of
customers over the years. I am aware of one death last summer. At
approximately 5:00pm in Canterbury, New Hampshire, a long time customer
named Neil was driving at approx 50 mph down a two lane country road on his
1996 Ducati 916. Neil had put more than 40,000 miles on this particular bike
and was a daily avid rider who was extremely experienced. A pickup truck
took a left in front of him and he plowed into the side. Despite reasonable
speed and full helmet, he died instantly of massive head injury.  I don't
know if the driver said "Oops, sorry" or not, but Neil left a family with
children and the whole shop went to the funeral. No other fatalities of shop
customers are known to me prior to this recent incident. A miniscule sample
of zero statistical significance, but its still safe to say that 100% of the
fatilities were due to the left turn issue. It could have been a million
other things................................but it wasn't.

Have you ever seen the headlight system on a 916 ? In plain talk...it sucks!


Greg Girard


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